MLB Recap · August 10, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

STL3
Final
KC8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL0200000103102
KC00100142-8122

The Story

The Kansas City Royals defeated the visiting St. Louis Cardinals 8-3 on August 10, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving Kansas City a 58% win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. The Royals built their margin incrementally, scoring once in the third and sixth innings before a four-run seventh inning broke the game open and rendered any Cardinals comeback effectively impossible.

The decisive sequence came in the seventh, where Ryan Fernandez absorbed the bulk of the damage. Freddy Fermin's single in the bottom of the sixth had already shifted momentum, adding 14.5% to Kansas City's win probability, but the Royals' most impactful swing of the night belonged to Bobby Witt Jr., whose triple off Fernandez in the seventh added 15.2% to Kansas City's win probability. Maikel Garcia followed with a single off Fernandez worth another 13.7%, capping a punishing inning for the Cardinals reliever. The Cardinals briefly threatened in the top of the seventh, but Tommy Pham grounded into a double play off Michael Wacha, a sequence that cost St. Louis 13.8% in win probability and snuffed out any realistic path back into the contest.

Witt Jr. finished as the night's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus 17.9% and a RE24 of plus 2.5. Paul Goldschmidt contributed offensively for St. Louis, generating plus 13.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9, though the Cardinals' collective effort was undermined by two errors. On the mound, Andre Pallante led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 23.9%, while Michael Wacha added plus 14.7%, anchoring a Kansas City staff that limited St. Louis despite the visitors collecting ten hits.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalKC win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bobby Witt Jr. Triple
Bot 7th · off Ryan Fernandez
+15.2%
Freddy Fermin Single
Bot 6th · off Ryan Fernandez
+14.5%
Tommy Pham Grounded Into DP
Top 7th · off Michael Wacha
-13.8%
Maikel Garcia Single
Bot 7th · off Ryan Fernandez
+13.7%
Garrett Hampson Lineout
Bot 2nd · off Andre Pallante
-10.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Bobby Witt Jr.+17.9%+2.5 RE24
Paul Goldschmidt+13.1%+1.9 RE24
Freddy Fermin+11.2%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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