Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Colorado Rockies 11-8 at Coors Field on August 10, 2024, in a game that swung decisively on a pair of Matt Olson home runs. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Colorado holding a 38 percent win probability at first pitch, but Atlanta seized control early and never relinquished it, finishing with the model's estimate at zero percent for the Rockies.

The turning point came in the third inning, when Olson launched a home run off Dakota Hudson that shifted win probability by plus 34.2 percent in Atlanta's favor, the single most impactful play of the game. Colorado answered in the bottom half as Sam Hilliard hit a double off Max Fried that swung probability 17.9 percent toward the home side, briefly keeping the Rockies within reach. Atlanta pushed back in the sixth, where Jorge Soler's single off Riley Pint added 21.4 percent to the Braves' win probability, and Olson followed in the seventh with his second home run of the night, this one off Angel Chivilli, for another 19.6 percent swing. Brenton Doyle's single off Aaron Bummer in the bottom of the sixth, worth 18.9 percent, represented Colorado's most meaningful late threat, but it was not enough to close the gap.

Olson finished as the game's most dominant performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus 53.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 4.8. Hilliard led all Rockies hitters with a WPA of plus 41.2 percent and an RE24 of plus 4.7, providing Colorado's most sustained offensive contribution. Soler added plus 37.5 percent WPA and plus 3.8 RE24 for Atlanta. On the mound, Pierce Johnson was the standout reliever by win probability, contributing plus 13.7 percent WPA for the Braves, while Noah Davis finished at minus 0.2 percent for Colorado.