Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Philadelphia Phillies 3-2 on August 9, 2024 at Chase Field, with Adrian Del Castillo delivering a game-ending home run in the bottom of the ninth off Jeff Hoffman that swung win probability by 35.9 percentage points, pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a contested late-game state to a final 100 percent for Arizona. The Diamondbacks entered the night at just a 49 percent pre-game home win probability per the DiamondIQ model, and the game lived up to that near-even projection through eight innings before Del Castillo's decisive blow ended it, making him the night's top performer at plus-39.4 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24.

The scoring unfolded quietly before the late drama. Joc Pederson gave Arizona an early lead with a solo home run off Zack Wheeler in the bottom of the third, a swing worth plus-9.9 percent in win probability. Arizona added another run in the first inning and appeared to be in control until Philadelphia answered in the seventh, when Bryce Harper hit a solo home run off Ryne Nelson to cut the deficit, a play worth plus-12.7 percent for the Phillies. Johan Rojas then drew Philadelphia closer still with a double off A.J. Puk in the top of the eighth, the second-biggest individual swing of the game at plus-16.1 percent, briefly tilting momentum toward the visitors and knotting the score at two.

Arizona's pitching staff ultimately proved the difference. Ryne Nelson led all pitchers with plus-25.4 percent WPA despite surrendering the Harper home run, while Justin Martinez and Matt Strahm added plus-13.5 and plus-10.9 percent respectively. A key Josh Bell groundout into a double play in the bottom of the eighth off Strahm, costing Arizona minus-11.3 percent in win probability from the batting side, briefly complicated the home half, but Del Castillo rendered all of it moot one inning later.