MLB Recap · August 8, 2024

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

CIN10
Final
MIA4

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
CIN201000000710121
MIA0003000001491

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds erased a 4-2 deficit with a seven-run outburst in the top of the tenth inning to defeat the Miami Marlins 10-4 on August 8, 2024, at loanDepot park. Cincinnati had trailed through nine innings, but the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Miami winning the game, which stood at 42% before first pitch, collapsed to 0% by the final out as the Reds turned what had been a competitive game into a lopsided final.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the tenth, when Emmanuel Ramirez proved unable to contain a Cincinnati offense that suddenly came to life. Elly De La Cruz delivered the game's single most impactful plate appearance, a single that shifted win probability by 25.1 percentage points in Cincinnati's favor. Tyler Stephenson followed with a walk worth an 18.1-point swing, and Jonathan India drew another walk adding 8.7 points, as Ramirez's inability to retire hitters with the bases occupied unraveled Miami's chances entirely. The Marlins had generated some late hope in the bottom of the ninth, when Jake Burger laced a double off Buck Farmer that moved the needle 12.0 points toward Miami, but Jonah Bride's strikeout two batters later cost the Marlins 9.0 points of win probability and ended that threat before it could materialize.

De La Cruz finished as Cincinnati's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-29.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Stephenson posted a WPA of plus-18.9 alongside the game's best RE24 among batters at plus-1.6. Burger was Miami's lone bright spot offensively at plus-7.6 WPA, though his minus-0.2 RE24 reflected the limited run-scoring context of his contributions. On the mound, the Cincinnati bullpen quietly secured the win, with Jesus Tinoco, Calvin Faucher, and Tony Santillan each posting WPA figures above plus-12.0 as they held Miami at bay and preserved the advantage Cincinnati built in the tenth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalMIA win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.1% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Elly De La Cruz Single
Top 10th · off Emmanuel Ramirez
+25.1%
Top 10th · off Emmanuel Ramirez
+18.9%
Jake Burger Double
Bot 9th · off Buck Farmer
+12.0%
Jonah Bride Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Buck Farmer
-9.0%
Top 10th · off Emmanuel Ramirez
+8.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Elly De La Cruz+29.3%+1.5 RE24
Tyler Stephenson+18.9%+1.6 RE24
Jake Burger+7.6%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →