San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres overcame a five-run deficit to defeat the Pittsburgh Pirates 7-6 at PNC Park on August 8, 2024, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh victory fall from 48 percent before first pitch all the way to zero by the final out. San Diego struck early, plating two runs in each of the first two innings to build a 4-0 lead, but Pittsburgh answered with three runs in the sixth and two more in the seventh to take a 5-4 advantage, erasing the Padres' cushion entirely. The Pirates held a one-run edge heading into the ninth with closer David Bednar on the mound, a position that looked favorable on paper but unraveled quickly.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the ninth against Bednar, where San Diego strung together three consecutive contributions that swung the game decisively. Jackson Merrill drew a walk that shifted win probability 15.2 percent toward the Padres, followed immediately by Ha-Seong Kim working another free pass for an additional 17.3 percent swing. Kyle Higashioka then delivered the biggest single play of the game, a forceout that nevertheless pushed a run across and moved the needle 38.1 percent in San Diego's favor, finishing with a game-leading plus-34.1 percent WPA on the night. The Padres scored three times in the inning to take a 7-5 lead. Pittsburgh's Joey Bart had earlier delivered the game's second-most impactful play, a home run off Yuki Matsui in the bottom of the seventh worth plus-30.1 percent for Pittsburgh, finishing with plus-23.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3. Robert Suarez closed the door in the bottom of the ninth, and Bryan De La Cruz's strikeout to end the game registered a plus-27.0 percent swing in San Diego's favor, crediting De La Cruz with plus-23.5 percent WPA on the night.

On the pitching side, Randy Vásquez led all pitchers with plus-23.0 percent WPA, while Aroldis Chapman contributed plus-10.8 percent and Jalen Beeks added plus-4.8 percent as San Diego's bullpen managed the late innings well enough to preserve the comeback. Pittsburgh finished with 12 hits to San Diego's 7, committing one error along the way, but the Pirates' inability to hold leads in back-to-back frames ultimately cost them a winnable game at home. The DiamondIQ model, which had opened the contest as a near coin flip favoring Pittsburgh slightly, tracked the probability steadily toward San Diego as the ninth inning unfolded.