MLB Recap · August 7, 2024

Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

MIN2
Final
CHC8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN110000000260
CHC10320002-882

The Story

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Minnesota Twins 8-2 at Wrigley Field on August 7, 2024, turning what opened as a nearly even contest into a comfortable home victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game with Chicago holding a 47% win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Cubs controlled the game's second half. Minnesota scored in each of the first two innings to grab an early 2-1 lead, but Chicago answered with three runs in the third and two more in the fourth to seize command, then added two insurance runs in the eighth to close out the margin.

The third inning proved to be the pivotal sequence of the game, as Cubs hitters worked Trevor Richards and Cole Sands into deep counts and drew a series of consequential walks. Mike Tauchman's walk in the bottom of the third was the single most impactful offensive moment of that frame, adding 11.4% to Chicago's win probability, while Seiya Suzuki's walk contributed another 9.8% and Christian Bethancourt's added 5.9%, each coming off Richards. The parade of free passes loaded the bases and forced in runs, and while Dansby Swanson grounded into a forceout that cost the Cubs 4.9% in win probability, the damage to Minnesota's position had already been done. Ian Happ then put the game further out of reach with a home run off Cole Sands in the bottom of the fourth, a swing worth 11.7% in win probability added.

On the individual ledger, Tauchman, Suzuki, and Bethancourt finished as Chicago's top offensive contributors by WPA, posting figures of plus-9.0%, plus-9.1%, and plus-8.9% respectively, with Bethancourt also leading the trio in run expectancy added at plus-1.7 RE24. Javier Assad led all pitchers with plus-6.6% WPA, followed by Jorge López at plus-6.2%, as the Cubs bullpen held the Twins to no further scoring after the second inning. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the sustained walk sequences in the third as the structural turning point that erased Minnesota's early lead and shifted the game's probability firmly toward Chicago.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalCHC win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ian Happ Home Run
Bot 4th · off Cole Sands
+11.7%
Mike Tauchman Walk
Bot 3rd · off Trevor Richards
+11.4%
Seiya Suzuki Walk
Bot 3rd · off Trevor Richards
+9.8%
Bot 3rd · off Trevor Richards
+5.9%
Dansby Swanson Forceout
Bot 3rd · off Cole Sands
-4.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Seiya Suzuki+9.1%+0.5 RE24
Mike Tauchman+9.0%+1.2 RE24
Christian Bethancourt+8.9%+1.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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