MLB Recap · August 7, 2024

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

DET6
Final
SEA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET1011000036130
SEA000200000251

The Story

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-2 on August 7, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, handing the home team a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had given Seattle a 57 percent chance of avoiding before first pitch. Detroit built leads in the first, third, and fourth innings before putting the game away with a three-run ninth, finishing with 13 hits and no errors while Seattle managed just five hits and committed one error.

The game's most consequential sequence centered on Cal Raleigh, whose fourth-inning home run off Tarik Skubal was the single biggest positive swing for Seattle, adding 18.0 percent to the Mariners' win probability and briefly threatening Detroit's early lead. However, Raleigh's flyout against Jason Foley in the bottom of the eighth swung win probability 18.7 percent in Detroit's favor, effectively closing the door on any Seattle comeback. Bligh Madris's double off George Kirby in the third and Jake Rogers's home run off Kirby in the fourth were the other decisive offensive contributions for Detroit, with Rogers's blast adding 9.7 percent to the Tigers' win probability.

On the pitching side, Tarik Skubal led all players with a WPA of plus-28.4 percent, absorbing the Raleigh home run but otherwise controlling the game, while Jason Foley added plus-23.3 percent with his work in the eighth. Among position players, Randy Arozarena finished with the highest WPA on the Tigers side at plus-12.7 percent to go along with a RE24 of plus-0.6, followed by Gio Urshela at plus-7.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2, and Rogers at plus-7.1 percent. Austin Voth also contributed plus-7.4 percent, which matched the negative swing from Javier Báez's flyout against him in the eighth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalSEA win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 57.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Cal Raleigh Flyout
Bot 8th · off Jason Foley
-18.7%
Cal Raleigh Home Run
Bot 4th · off Tarik Skubal
+18.0%
Bligh Madris Double
Top 3rd · off George Kirby
+11.1%
Jake Rogers Home Run
Top 4th · off George Kirby
+9.7%
Javier Báez Flyout
Top 8th · off Austin Voth
-7.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Randy Arozarena+12.7%+0.6 RE24
Gio Urshela+7.8%+1.2 RE24
Jake Rogers+7.1%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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