Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Cincinnati Reds 6-4 on August 7, 2024, at loanDepot park, turning what looked like a comfortable cushion into a briefly tense finish before closing things out. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 43% chance of winning at home, but a massive first inning pushed that probability sharply in the Marlins' favor and it reached 100% by game's end.

The decisive blow came early and emphatically. Miami plated five runs in the bottom of the first inning, effectively seizing control before Cincinnati could settle in. Valente Bellozo was the central figure in neutralizing the Reds' offense, finishing as the top pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting at plus-24.7%. His second-inning strikeout of Jonathan India represented the single most impactful play of the game in terms of win-probability swing, costing Cincinnati 14.7 percentage points of win expectancy. Jake Burger supported that effort at the plate, leading all batters with a plus-15.3% WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, including a strikeout against Andrew Abbott in the second that added 11.8 percentage points to Miami's win probability.

Cincinnati did threaten in the seventh, when TJ Friedl connected on a home run off Andrew Nardi that swung the win probability 13.4 points toward the Reds, and Tyler Stephenson added a double in the ninth worth another 13.4 points. Friedl, however, made the final out of that ninth-inning rally with a flyout off Calvin Faucher that erased 12.1 points of Cincinnati's remaining win probability and sealed the result. Cristian Pache also contributed positively for Miami, posting a plus-11.4% WPA. The Reds finished with ten hits but could not overcome the early deficit Miami built on the back of Bellozo's performance.