San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 2 |
| PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres edged the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-8 in ten innings at PNC Park on August 7, 2024, in a game that swung violently in both directions before the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at a 0% home win probability after the final out. Pittsburgh had entered the day with a 49% pre-game win probability according to the model, but a pair of late Padres rallies ultimately erased every Pirates advantage. San Diego finished with 14 hits to Pittsburgh's 11, committing two errors to the Pirates' none, and the decisive damage came in extra innings after the teams were level heading into the tenth.
The game's two most impactful offensive moments belonged to Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. Merrill's ninth-inning home run off David Bednar shifted win probability by +35.7 percentage points, pulling San Diego back from the brink and forcing extra innings. Bogaerts then delivered the decisive blow in the top of the tenth, a single off Colin Holderman that swung win probability by +39.7 points — the single largest swing of the contest — as the Padres pushed across three runs to take a 9-6 lead. Pittsburgh's Connor Joe struck out against Adrian Morejon in the bottom of the tenth, a moment that cost the Pirates 26.9 percentage points of win probability and effectively closed the door. Kyle Higashioka's fourth-inning home run off Marco Gonzales had given San Diego an early push worth +26.3 points, while Andrew McCutchen's sixth-inning single off Jeremiah Estrada, worth +25.8 points, kept Pittsburgh in striking distance.
By the WPA leaderboard, Merrill led all players at +54.2% with a RE24 of +3.2, while McCutchen paced Pittsburgh at +48.7% and a RE24 of +3.0 despite being on the losing side. Bryan Reynolds added +27.4% for the Pirates with a RE24 of +1.4. Among pitchers, Aroldis Chapman led San Diego's bullpen at +10.8%, followed by Hunter Stratton at +8.6% and Jalen Beeks at +8.5%. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Merrill's ninth-inning blast as the true turning point, given how sharply it restructured the late-game probabilities in a contest that never stabilized until the final Padres run crossed in the tenth.