Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| TOR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-3 at Rogers Centre on August 7, 2024, handing Toronto a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected entirely by game's end, dropping the Blue Jays' win probability from 41% before first pitch to 0%. Baltimore scored two runs in the first inning and two more in the third to build an early lead, but Toronto answered with two runs in the second to keep the game within reach through the middle frames. The game remained competitive into the seventh, but a pair of late offensive explosions in the seventh and eighth innings ultimately buried the Blue Jays.
The decisive swing came in the top of the seventh when Jackson Holliday hit a home run off Ryan Burr, a blow that shifted win probability by 25.4 percentage points and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. Baltimore then piled on in the eighth, as Anthony Santander homered off Ryan Yarbrough for a 14.9-point swing, followed almost immediately by an Eloy Jimenez double off Erik Swanson worth 14.7 points. Jimenez had earlier hurt Baltimore's cause in the fourth with a ground into a double play off Bowden Francis that cost the Orioles 7.8 percentage points, while Toronto's Leo Jimenez provided the game's brightest moment for the home side with a seventh-inning double off Trevor Rogers that added 7.5 points for the Blue Jays.
Among individual performers, Holliday led all batters with a WPA of plus-20.8 and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Eloy Jimenez finished at plus-11.8 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 despite the costly double play. Leo Jimenez was Toronto's most impactful offensive contributor, posting plus-11.6 WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-1.8. On the pitching side, Bowden Francis led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-19.6, with Orioles relievers Genesis Cabrera and Yennier Cano adding plus-7.3 and plus-6.0, respectively. Baltimore out-hit Toronto 7-10 in hits but benefited significantly from three Toronto errors, finishing with one error of their own.