New York Mets at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets took down the Colorado Rockies 5-3 at Coors Field on August 7, 2024, in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before a decisive ninth-inning burst settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Colorado a 38 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that collapsed to zero percent by the final out. The two teams traded runs early, with both clubs scoring in the first inning and Colorado adding a run in the fourth, but neither side could separate itself through the middle frames, leaving the Mets clinging to a 2-2 tie heading into the ninth.

The game turned sharply in the top of the ninth against Colorado reliever Victor Vodnik. Francisco Alvarez delivered a triple that swung win probability by 23.8 percent in New York's favor, the single largest play of the contest by that measure, putting runners in scoring position and applying immediate pressure on the Rockies bullpen. Francisco Lindor followed with a single worth an additional 22.3 percent swing, and the Mets pushed across three runs in the frame to take a 5-2 lead. Colorado mounted a brief response in the bottom of the ninth, but Edwin Díaz closed the door, and Charlie Blackmon's strikeout to end the inning represented a 14.4 percent swing back toward New York, sealing the result. Earlier, Kris Bryant's single and Brendan Rodgers's double off Paul Blackburn in the fourth had given Colorado some traction, accounting for swings of 8.6 and 7.3 percent respectively.

Alvarez finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a WPA of plus-26.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.6, while Lindor added plus-13.8 percent WPA and a plus-0.8 RE24 to complement the late offensive explosion. On the pitching side, José Buttó led New York's staff with a plus-19.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Noah Davis at plus-15.3 percent. Paul Blackburn was the most effective Colorado arm by that measure, finishing at plus-11.8 percent WPA despite ultimately absorbing the damage in a game the DiamondIQ model had tilted toward the Rockies from the outset.