San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The San Francisco Giants handed the Washington Nationals a 7-4 defeat at Nationals Park on August 7, 2024, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability open at 49 percent and close at zero. Washington briefly seized control in the bottom of the third when Juan Yepez deposited a home run off Blake Snell, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-21.0 percent in the Nationals' favor and represented the single largest probability move of the game. San Francisco had already done damage that inning on a Matt Chapman single off Jake Irvin worth plus-12.4 percent, and the Giants ultimately pushed through for a 2-3 inning split that left the two clubs knotted after three. From that point forward, Washington never led again, as San Francisco tacked on two runs in each of the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings to put the game beyond reach.

The turning point belonged entirely to the Giants' offensive contributors in the middle innings. Heliot Ramos launched a home run off Irvin in the fifth, a plus-12.7 percent swing that extended the lead, and Matt Chapman followed in the same inning with another home run off Irvin, adding plus-12.2 percent. In the sixth, Mike Yastrzemski delivered a triple off José A. Ferrer worth plus-12.6 percent, each successive blow compressing what remained of Washington's chances. Chapman finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus-27.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.7, while Yastrzemski contributed plus-20.6 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 across a 10-hit Giants attack.

San Francisco's bullpen closed out the final frames without incident. Tyler Rogers led the relief corps with plus-5.2 percent WPA, followed by Ryan Walker at plus-3.6 percent and Eduardo Salazar at plus-1.4 percent. Washington managed one additional run in the seventh but never mounted a credible threat against the Giants' late-game arms. The Nationals finished with eight hits and no errors, yet the game's shape was determined by San Francisco's consistent run-scoring in the middle innings and the model's lean toward the Giants crystallizing into a three-run final margin.