MLB Recap · July 7, 2024

Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

CWS4
Final
MIA7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS000202000491
MIA000100204772

The Story

The Miami Marlins defeated the Chicago White Sox 7-4 on July 7, 2024, at loanDepot Park, with a four-run bottom of the ninth inning turning a one-run deficit into a decisive home win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Miami at 62% and closed at 100% after the late rally was complete.

The game's two most consequential plays came back-to-back in the ninth inning against White Sox reliever Michael Kopech. With Miami trailing, Josh Bell laced a double that swung win probability by plus-44.4 percentage points, the single biggest batting play of the night, before Jake Burger followed with a home run that added another plus-37.4 percentage points and put the Marlins ahead for good. Those two swings effectively decided the outcome. Earlier, Danny Mendick had given Chicago momentum with a fourth-inning home run off Edward Cabrera that shifted win probability plus-21.5 points, and a Bryan De La Cruz flyout in the bottom of the eighth represented a missed opportunity for Miami, costing the home side 18.7 percentage points at a critical juncture.

Bell finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-45.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Mendick posted the highest RE24 among all batters at plus-2.1 to go with plus-28.7 percent WPA. Vidal Bruján also contributed meaningfully at plus-26.3 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. On the mound, Jonathan Cannon and John Brebbia paced Miami's pitching staff, each adding over 23 percentage points of win probability to the Marlins' cause before the offense put the game away in the final frame.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalMIA win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 62.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Josh Bell Double
Bot 9th · off Michael Kopech
+44.4%
Jake Burger Home Run
Bot 9th · off Michael Kopech
+37.4%
Bot 9th · off Michael Kopech
-25.9%
Danny Mendick Home Run
Top 4th · off Edward Cabrera
+21.5%
Bryan De La Cruz Flyout
Bot 8th · off John Brebbia
-18.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Josh Bell+45.9%+1.1 RE24
Danny Mendick+28.7%+2.1 RE24
Vidal Bruján+26.3%+1.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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