Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 6-0 shutout on July 7, 2024, at Truist Park, a game that was effectively decided in a single inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Atlanta a 45 percent chance of winning, but by the time the second inning concluded, that estimate had moved to near certainty and never looked back, finishing at 100 percent in Atlanta's favor.

The second inning was the entire ballgame. Phillies starter Michael Mercado absorbed the brunt of the damage, surrendering home runs to Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, and Matt Olson in the frame. Kelenic's blast was the most consequential single swing of the night, shifting win probability by 13.0 percentage points according to the DiamondIQ model. Duvall's homer added another 7.4 points, and Olson's contributed 3.8 more. Reliever José Ruiz was also unable to stop the bleeding, and a Marcell Ozuna lineout in the same inning still registered an 11.3-point swing, reflecting how loaded the situation remained throughout Atlanta's five-run outburst. On the Philadelphia side, Garrett Stubbs's strikeout to close out the top of the second against Reynaldo López represented the Phillies' most damaging moment, costing 4.5 percentage points at a juncture when they still had a slim foothold.

Kelenic led all position players with a WPA of plus-13.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.4, while Ozuna finished at plus-11.5 and Duvall at plus-7.8. On the mound, Reynaldo López was the story for Atlanta, accumulating a plus-16.9 WPA as he held Philadelphia to five hits and no runs across his outing. The Phillies managed nothing offensively, generating just five hits with no errors from either club, leaving Atlanta's pitching staff a clean and dominant performance to build on.