Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the Oakland Athletics a 6-3 defeat at Oakland Coliseum on July 7, 2024, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate rendered nearly inevitable by the end, dropping Oakland's win probability from a pre-game 28 percent all the way to zero. Baltimore scored four runs in the first inning and added single tallies in the third, sixth, seventh, and ninth to build a lead Oakland could never seriously threaten, finishing with six runs on eight hits while the Athletics committed three errors against one for Baltimore.

The game's most pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, when Brett Harris delivered a single off Grayson Rodriguez that swung win probability 11.9 percent in Oakland's favor, briefly injecting life into a rally attempt. That momentum evaporated almost immediately, however, as Jacob Webb entered and induced a Max Schuemann strikeout that swung probability 9.4 percent back toward Baltimore. Webb finished as the game's most impactful pitcher by WPA at plus-14.7 percent. The bottom of the eighth offered Oakland one final chance, but Yennier Cano, who posted a plus-13.3 percent WPA performance, answered with back-to-back strikeouts of Zack Gelof and Shea Langeliers, worth minus-7.4 and minus-7.0 percent respectively. A Tyler Soderstrom walk momentarily stalled Cano's work, adding plus-6.6 percent for the Athletics, but the threat went no further.

Among individual performers, Soderstrom led Oakland batters with a plus-12.0 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, though his contributions came in losing circumstances. Harris contributed a plus-8.4 percent WPA performance on the strength of his seventh-inning single, and JJ Bleday added plus-7.2 percent WPA for the Athletics. The DiamondIQ model had leaned heavily toward Baltimore entering the contest, and the Orioles validated that lean from the opening frame forward.