Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the San Diego Padres a lopsided 9-1 defeat at Petco Park on July 7, 2024, erasing what had been a 56 percent pre-game win probability for the home side according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Padres drew first blood in the bottom of the first, but Arizona's pitching and offense combined to suffocate San Diego through six scoreless innings before the game broke open entirely in the final three frames.

The decisive blow came in the top of the seventh inning when Eugenio Suárez connected on a home run off Dylan Cease, a swing that shifted win probability by +30.1 percent in Arizona's favor and effectively ended the contest as a competitive game. That moment stood as the single largest win-probability swing of the night and left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Padres victory at a number that would fall to zero by the final out. Arizona added a run in the eighth on a Kevin Newman double off Austin Davis, worth +5.0 percent, before a five-run ninth inning closed out the scoring at 9-1. On the San Diego side, David Peralta's second-inning ground into a double play off Ryne Nelson represented a -5.4 percent swing, and Manny Machado's pop out in the seventh carried a -4.3 percent impact, two moments that underscored how few opportunities the Padres generated.

Ryne Nelson was the story of the game from a performance standpoint, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at +36.7 percent, holding San Diego to minimal damage across his outing. Suárez led all batters with a +28.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of +3.3, his seventh-inning home run serving as the quantitative centerpiece of the victory. Jurickson Profar contributed a +4.2 percent WPA and +1.2 RE24 for Arizona, and Jake McCarthy added +2.4 percent WPA and +1.0 RE24 as the Diamondbacks collected 12 hits without committing an error while San Diego managed just four hits and one error on the night.