St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Washington Nationals an 8-3 defeat at Nationals Park on July 7, 2024, holding a pre-game win probability of 52% according to the DiamondIQ model and ultimately closing that out to a 100% certainty. The Cardinals built their advantage through steady accumulation, scoring in five of nine innings while Washington's errors compounded the damage, with St. Louis finishing with 13 hits and a clean fielding performance against Washington's 11 hits and two errors.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the fifth inning, when Nolan Arenado delivered a single off Dylan Floro that shifted win probability 14.8 percentage points in St. Louis's favor, capping a three-run frame that effectively put the game out of reach. Nolan Gorman had already set the tone in the fourth with a single off DJ Herz worth 10.5 percentage points of win probability, and Washington's offensive opportunities were repeatedly stifled by their own baserunning, as Juan Yepez grounded into double plays in both the fourth and sixth innings, costing the Nationals 9.4 and 14.8 percentage points of win probability respectively. Jesse Winker's sixth-inning double off Kyle Gibson, worth 11.4 points, offered a brief glimpse of a rally that never materialized.

Among the standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Nolan Gorman led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.5% and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Willson Contreras contributed plus-9.7% WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. On the mound, reliever Ryan Fernandez was the most impactful arm of the evening, posting a WPA of plus-19.7% for Washington, though his efforts were not enough to overcome the deficit the Cardinals had constructed through their relentless middle-inning production.