Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a lopsided 9-2 defeat at Dodger Stadium on July 7, 2024, converting what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 56 percent pre-game home win probability for Los Angeles into a final figure of zero. Milwaukee's offense broke through methodically against starter Justin Wrobleski, doing its most significant damage in the middle innings while the pitching staff largely kept the Dodgers' lineup in check across nine frames.

The decisive turning point came in the fourth inning when Christian Yelich connected on a home run off Wrobleski, a swing that shifted win probability by 17.8 percent in Milwaukee's favor. Eric Haase followed with another home run off Wrobleski in the fifth, adding a 15.9 percent swing that effectively buried Los Angeles's chances of a comeback. Los Angeles briefly responded in the bottom of the sixth when Chris Taylor hit a home run off Jakob Junis for a 14.2 percent favorable swing for the Dodgers, but that represented the extent of their meaningful resistance. Blake Perkins added a home run off Ryan Yarbrough in the seventh, a 9.8 percent swing that pushed Milwaukee's lead beyond any reasonable dispute. A Brice Turang groundout in the fifth inning was the game's most damaging negative play for the Brewers, costing 8.6 percent in win probability.

By WPA, Blake Perkins led all players at plus-19.6 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Christian Yelich posted plus-19.3 percent and a team-best RE24 of plus-3.2. Eric Haase contributed plus-14.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.9. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel was the standout, generating plus-18.6 percent WPA to anchor a Brewers pitching effort that limited Los Angeles to seven hits across the game. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Milwaukee having been significantly undervalued entering the contest given the final margin.