Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays overcame a 61 percent pre-game DiamondIQ model home win probability for Seattle to take a 5-4 decision in ten innings at T-Mobile Park on July 7, 2024. The game was largely quiet through the first six frames, with Seattle scratching across a run in the third and Toronto answering in the fourth, before the Mariners seized a 4-1 lead with three runs in the fifth. Toronto erased that deficit entirely in the seventh when George Springer launched a home run off Ryne Stanek, a swing that shifted win probability by 32.9 points in the Blue Jays' favor and knotted the game heading into the final innings.

The tenth inning delivered the decisive sequence. Daulton Varsho singled off Collin Snider, a hit that added 35.3 percentage points of win probability and proved to be the single highest-leverage batting play of the game. Snider then struck out Davis Schneider, a moment that by framing swung 21.1 points back toward Seattle, underscoring just how tightly contested the extra frame was before Toronto ultimately pushed the go-ahead run across for the 5-4 final. The ninth inning had its own tension, with Luke Raley's double off Chad Green adding 20.5 points for Seattle, only for Ty France to strand the threat with a strikeout that swung the same 20.5 points back to Toronto.

On the individual leaderboard, Varsho led all position players with a plus-29.3 WPA, while Victor Robles posted a plus-27.1 WPA alongside the game's best RE24 mark among Toronto's top contributors at plus-2.5. Springer added plus-25.6 WPA on the strength of his go-ahead home run. On the mound, Nate Pearson paced Toronto's staff at plus-17.5 WPA, followed by Brendon Little at plus-14.3 and Andrés Muñoz at plus-13.5, a trio whose collective late-game work helped preserve a result the DiamondIQ model had assessed as a decided longshot entering the evening.