Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins walked off the Houston Astros 3-2 on July 7, 2024, at Target Field, with Christian Vázquez delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the night favoring Minnesota at 59% and closed at 100% following Vázquez's walk-off home run off Josh Hader, a swing that added 35.9 percentage points of win probability in a single stroke. Houston had grabbed a 2-1 lead after a two-run second inning, and Minnesota answered with a run in the fourth before the game settled into a prolonged stalemate through the middle frames. The Twins finished with 11 hits to Houston's five, and Houston's lone error on the night added to the fragility of their late-game position.
The eighth and ninth innings shaped the contest's final character. Joey Loperfido gave Houston a flicker of momentum with a double off Griffin Jax in the top of the eighth, adding 11.2 points of win probability and tying the game at two, but Minnesota's bullpen answered decisively. Ryan Pressly retired both Brooks Lee on a double play and Manuel Margot on a groundout in the bottom half, swinging the probability back toward Houston by a combined 21.6 percentage points. Chas McCormick then struck out against Jhoan Duran to lead off the ninth, a 12.0-point probability hit that proved fatal to the Astros' chances before Vázquez ended it.
Among individual performers, Vázquez led all batters with a 33.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Loperfido's double was the only other Houston contribution of significance at plus-11.2% WPA. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran led Minnesota's relievers at plus-13.5% WPA, with Pressly adding plus-10.9% and Griffin Jax contributing plus-10.6% despite surrendering the tying double. Matt Wallner rounded out Minnesota's notable offensive contributors at plus-7.4% WPA and plus-0.7 RE24. The model's lean throughout aligned with the home side, and Vázquez's ninth-inning punctuation made the final probability a certainty.