Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3 on July 6, 2024, at loanDepot park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami win opening at 61% before the game and closing at 100%. Miami's bullpen ultimately secured the outcome after a back-and-forth contest that saw the White Sox draw first blood in the opening inning and build a 3-1 lead through three innings on the strength of a Gavin Sheets double off Yonny Chirinos in the top of the third, a play that shifted win probability 11.2 points in Chicago's favor. The Marlins chipped away in the fourth, where Vidal Bruján's single off Garrett Crochet added 11.5 points to Miami's win probability and Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s walk contributed another 9.9 points, though Jake Burger's pop out in the same frame swung things 9.4 points back toward Chicago and kept the Sox in front heading into the middle innings.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh, when Dane Myers launched a home run off Michael Soroka that shifted Miami's win probability by 26.4 points and put the Marlins ahead for good. Myers finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 31.0 and an RE24 of plus 2.4, while Sheets and Chisholm followed at plus 12.4 and plus 11.0 WPA respectively. On the pitching side, Miami's late-game arms were equally critical, with Tanner Scott leading all pitchers at plus 15.2 WPA, followed by Huascar Brazobán at plus 12.6 and A.J. Puk at plus 10.8, a trio that preserved the one-run lead through the final innings despite Chicago finishing with a clean 6-hit, no-error line.