San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| CLE | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians held off the San Francisco Giants 5-4 at Progressive Field on July 6, 2024, in a game that swung dramatically before the home team ultimately secured the win. The DiamondIQ model entered the evening with a 68% pre-game win probability in Cleveland's favor, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%. Cleveland built a commanding 4-0 lead through the first two innings, but San Francisco mounted a significant threat in the fifth before the Guardians found the answer they needed in the sixth.
The fifth inning represented the sharpest probability shift against Cleveland, as the Giants mounted a three-run rally against Scott Barlow that carried notable win-probability movement on each key moment. Matt Chapman drew a walk that added 8.3 percentage points to San Francisco's win probability, Tyler Fitzgerald followed with a single worth another 8.4 points, and Curt Casali's walk to cap the inning added 12.4 points — the second-largest single-play swing of the game. That sequence brought the Giants to within one run and put serious pressure on the Guardians. Jhonkensy Noel answered in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Luke Jackson that swung win probability 12.2 points back toward Cleveland, restoring the two-run cushion. Michael Conforto's double off Sam Hentges in the seventh added 15.4 points for San Francisco, the largest single-play swing of the game, though the Giants could not fully convert.
On the strength of their WPA contributions, Noel led Cleveland's offense with a cumulative mark of plus-18.2%, while Chapman and Casali paced the Giants at plus-17.1% and plus-10.9%, respectively. Casali also posted the highest RE24 among batters at plus-1.5. On the mound, Emmanuel Clase led all pitchers with a plus-15.2% WPA, supported by Hunter Gaddis at plus-10.8% and Logan Allen at plus-8.2%, as the Guardians bullpen preserved the one-run victory.