St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| WSH | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 14 | 15 | 0 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals routed the St. Louis Cardinals 14-6 at Nationals Park on July 6, 2024, and the game was effectively decided before it reached the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered with Washington holding a 49 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure climbed rapidly as the Nationals posted four runs in the first and five more in the second against Cardinals starter Lance Lynn, ultimately reaching 100 percent by the game's end. Washington finished with 15 hits and committed no errors, while St. Louis managed 11 hits but was undermined by one error and an inability to slow the Nationals' early offensive surge.
The most consequential sequence of the night came in the bottom of the first and second innings, all against Lynn. Juan Yepez drove the two biggest individual play swings of the game, with a groundout in the second inning adding 12.5 percentage points to Washington's win probability and a groundout in the first adding another 8.7 points, both coming in high-leverage situations that Lynn was unable to escape cleanly. James Wood followed in the second with a home run off Lynn that added 7.2 percentage points, and Keibert Ruiz had contributed a home run of his own in the first that moved the needle by 4.5 points. On the Cardinals' side, Dylan Carlson's strikeout against MacKenzie Gore in the top of the second was the single most damaging at-bat for St. Louis, costing the team 10.5 percentage points of win probability and snuffing out any early momentum the Cardinals might have generated in response.
Among the standout performers, Yepez led all players with a combined WPA of plus-21.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.0, his groundouts coming at moments when base situations made each out particularly costly for St. Louis. Wood was the night's premier extra-base contributor with a WPA of plus-11.0 and an RE24 of plus-3.5, while Ruiz posted a WPA of plus-4.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.7 to round out Washington's top offensive trio. On the pitching side, Jacob Barnes led Nationals relievers with a WPA of plus-4.0, and MacKenzie Gore added plus-2.8 as Washington's bullpen preserved the comfortable margin through the final innings.