Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers held off a late Cincinnati rally to claim a 5-4 victory at Great American Ball Park on July 5, 2024, dropping the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Reds win from 56% before first pitch to 0% at the final out. Detroit built its lead methodically, with Parker Meadows opening the scoring in the third inning on a home run off Carson Spiers that shifted win probability 10.5 percentage points in the Tigers' favor. Colt Keith added another solo shot off Spiers in the fifth, a swing worth 15.2 percentage points, and Detroit eventually stretched its advantage to 5-2 heading into the final frame.
The ninth inning produced the game's most volatile sequence and ultimately its three biggest individual plays by win-probability impact. Nick Martini's triple off Jason Foley moved the needle 33.7 points toward Cincinnati, representing the largest single positive swing of the night for either side and suddenly placing the tying and winning runs within reach. However, a Santiago Espinal groundout shifted things back 21.4 points in Detroit's direction, and Tyler Stephenson's fielder's choice out to close the inning swung win probability 33.9 points against the Reds, ending any remaining hope and cementing the Tigers' one-run win.
Among individual performers, Martini finished as Detroit's top contributor by WPA at plus 26.5 percentage points despite his team's offensive role in the ninth being largely a product of circumstance, while Colt Keith posted the strongest run-environment impact with a RE24 of plus 2.1 to go with his 24.0 percentage points of win-probability added. On the pitching side, Will Vest led Detroit's relievers with plus 11.7 percentage points of WPA, followed by Reese Olson at plus 7.6 and Andrew Chafin at plus 5.2, a trio that proved just durable enough to preserve the one-run advantage through a tense finish.