Kansas City Royals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Kansas City Royals 4-2 at Coors Field on July 5, 2024, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave them only a 36 percent chance of winning. Kansas City struck first in the top of the first inning and held a lead into the middle frames, but Colorado chipped away with a run in the third and another in the sixth before putting the game away with a two-run eighth that shifted the model's estimate to 100 percent in the Rockies' favor.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the eighth inning against John Schreiber, where Brenton Doyle delivered a double that swung Colorado's win probability by 15.1 percent, followed immediately by a Ryan McMahon double that added another 13.8 percent. Those two blows effectively closed the door on Kansas City's chances. Earlier, Michael Toglia's home run off Cole Ragans in the third inning had provided a 11.2 percent swing in Colorado's favor, while Maikel Garcia's triple off Kyle Freeland in the top of the fifth gave the Royals a temporary counter-punch worth 9.7 percent. A Nolan Jones strikeout in the fourth against Ragans proved costly for Colorado in the moment, costing the home side 9.4 percent in win probability.

Doyle finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, generating 23.9 percent in combined win-probability added alongside a RE24 of plus-1.7. Brendan Rodgers contributed 15.6 percent WPA and Freddy Fermin added 14.2 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.3 on the Kansas City side despite the loss. On the mound, Kyle Freeland led all pitchers with 25.3 percent WPA for Colorado, while Cole Ragans posted 10.8 percent WPA for Kansas City in a performance that kept his club within striking distance through much of the contest before the Rockies' late rally decided matters.