Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore left Oakland with a 3-2 victory on July 5, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum, completing a come-from-behind win that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as unlikely from the start, assigning the Athletics a 28 percent pre-game win probability. The two teams traded single runs in the first inning and Baltimore added another in the second to take a 2-1 lead, a margin that held until Shea Langeliers pulled Oakland within one with a solo home run off Albert Suárez in the seventh, a swing that shifted win probability 15.8 percent in Oakland's favor. The Athletics, however, could not push any further across late, as Yennier Cano stranded a potential rally in the eighth, most notably inducing a groundout from Brent Rooker that swung win probability 19.9 percent back toward Baltimore, followed by a strikeout of Miguel Andujar worth another 13.7 percent, even as Max Schuemann's single had briefly given Oakland a foothold in the frame.

The game's most decisive sequence came in the ninth, when Craig Kimbrel struck out Zack Gelof to end Oakland's final threat, a moment that carried a 31.6 percent win-probability swing and sealed the Orioles' win with the DiamondIQ model's estimate settling at zero percent for the home side. Despite finishing as the top batter by WPA at plus 28.9 percent, Gelof's out was the game's defining at-bat. Cano was the standout performer of the night overall, posting a plus 23.3 percent WPA across his work in the eighth to preserve the one-run advantage. Langeliers contributed a plus 12.6 percent WPA and plus 0.5 RE24 on the strength of his home run, while Adley Rutschman led Baltimore's offensive contributors with a plus 5.8 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, helping support a final line of eight hits against five for Oakland, whose three errors also proved costly in the defeat.