Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

San Diego defeated Arizona 10-8 on July 5, 2024, at Petco Park in a game that produced one of the most dramatic late-inning sequences of the season. The Padres entered with a 58 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model, built a commanding lead through seven innings, then watched that advantage nearly evaporate before ultimately closing out the victory.

The decisive swings came in the final inning in both directions. With Arizona trailing heading into the top of the ninth, Randal Grichuk launched a home run off Robert Suarez that shifted win probability by 70.0 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game and the play that made San Diego's cushion suddenly feel precarious. The D-backs scored six runs in that half-inning to cut the deficit to two. San Diego responded immediately in the bottom of the ninth against Paul Sewald. Jurickson Profar hit a home run worth plus-44.1 percentage points in win probability, and Manny Machado followed with another home run that added 28.4 percentage points, the back-to-back blasts effectively ending Arizona's comeback attempt and sealing the final score at 10-8. Earlier, David Peralta's double in the fourth inning added 13.6 percentage points and Jackson Merrill's triple contributed 10.9 percentage points, helping San Diego build its foundation.

Among individual performers, Grichuk led all batters with a WPA of plus-70.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Machado posted plus-32.8 WPA and a game-high plus-2.1 RE24. Profar contributed plus-39.2 WPA on the evening. On the pitching side, Randy Vásquez led San Diego's staff with plus-11.0 WPA, with Stephen Kolek and Wandy Peralta each adding marginal contributions. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, though the path there required three home runs in the final nine outs.