Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 2 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
Seattle handed Toronto a 2-1 defeat on July 5, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Mariners a 63% pre-game win probability that ultimately resolved to 100% by the final out. The Blue Jays finished with just two hits against a Seattle pitching staff that was largely dominant, while the Mariners collected eight hits without committing an error against Toronto's one.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the third inning, when Luke Raley doubled off Kevin Gausman, a hit the DiamondIQ model's estimate valued at a +18.9% swing in win probability for Seattle. That play proved to be the single most impactful moment of the game and anchored Raley's final line of +14.0% WPA and +1.4 RE24, the best marks among all batters on the night. Toronto's lone response came in the top of the sixth, when Kevin Kiermaier connected on a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing worth +11.8% in win probability for the Blue Jays and good for a +10.6% WPA on the day. The inning unraveled immediately afterward, though, as Bo Bichette grounded into a double play off Castillo at a cost of -7.8% win probability, effectively ending any momentum Toronto had generated.
Seattle's bullpen closed the door with authority. Andrés Muñoz led all pitchers with +15.2% WPA, finishing off a Toronto lineup that mustered nothing in the ninth, capped by Spencer Horwitz grounding out at a -7.1% swing. Luis Castillo contributed +14.6% WPA in his own right, and Ryne Stanek added +10.8% including a strikeout of Addison Barger in the eighth worth -5.2% to Toronto's chances. Cal Raleigh rounded out the Seattle contributors with +2.3% WPA on the offensive side.