Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros survived a wild back-and-forth contest at Target Field on July 5, 2024, defeating the Minnesota Twins 13-12 in a game that went down to the final out. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 57 percent pre-game win probability in favor of the home side, but that figure ultimately closed at zero as Houston rallied to take the series decision. The Astros finished with 16 hits and committed no errors, while Minnesota contributed 17 hits of their own and one error across what became one of the messier scorelines of the season.
The decisive sequence unfolded across the middle and late innings. Joey Loperfido delivered the single largest offensive swing of the game in the top of the sixth, lacing a double off Jorge Alcala that shifted win probability 21.4 percent in Houston's favor, with Jeremy Peña following with a single off Pablo López to extend that advantage by another 13.4 percent. Houston continued to add to its lead with a three-run eighth, but Minnesota mounted a furious response in the bottom of the ninth, plating seven runs to pull within one and make the final out critical. That out came when Josh Hader struck out Manuel Margot, a moment that swung win probability 31.6 percent toward Houston and ended the Twins' comeback attempt. The bottom of the ninth charge had included a Max Kepler single in the seventh that added 12.0 percent to Minnesota's win probability, illustrating just how compressed and volatile the late-game situation became.
By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Margot finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-32.6 percent despite a minus-0.2 RE24, reflecting how his out represented the game's most consequential single moment. Jose Miranda posted plus-26.0 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24 as the standout contributor for Minnesota, while Peña led Houston's offensive contributors with plus-21.1 percent WPA and plus-2.7 RE24. On the pitching side, Seth Martinez led all relievers at plus-8.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Rafael Montero at plus-7.5 percent, as the Houston bullpen ultimately did enough to preserve the one-run victory.