Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Yankees an 8-4 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 4, 2024, overcoming a pre-game win probability of just 34 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate to complete a swing that left the Yankees with a zero percent chance of winning by the final out. Cincinnati scored in the second, third, fifth, and seventh innings, while New York managed two runs in the fifth and two more in the seventh but never found the consistent answer it needed to claw back.

The decisive turning point came in the top of the fifth, when Spencer Steer connected on a home run off Marcus Stroman, a swing that added 20.6 percent to Cincinnati's win probability and effectively broke the game open. Jonathan India had set an earlier tone with his own home run off Stroman in the third inning, a blow worth 10.2 percent in win probability. The Reds continued their assault in the seventh, with Jake Fraley delivering a triple off Jake Cousins that added another 10.8 percent. New York's most meaningful positive moment came in the sixth, when Alex Verdugo doubled off Frankie Montas to add 7.5 percent to the Yankees' chances, but Anthony Volpe's fielder's choice out in the same frame erased 8.0 percent of that momentum, and the inning stalled.

Steer finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-21.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3, while India contributed plus-12.9 percent and Verdugo led all Yankees at plus-11.9 percent despite the loss. On the pitching side, Nick Martinez led Cincinnati's staff with plus-11.6 percent in WPA, followed closely by Frankie Montas at plus-11.4 percent. New York committed two errors on the night against none for Cincinnati, a disparity that reflected the cleaner execution the Reds brought to the Bronx on Independence Day.