San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves defeated the San Francisco Giants 3-1 at Truist Park on July 3, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 62% pre-game home win probability to a terminal 100% by the final out. Atlanta's offense built its margin early and protected it through the middle innings, while San Francisco managed just four hits and an error on the night.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fifth, when Austin Riley doubled off Jordan Hicks to generate the single largest win-probability swing of the game, a plus-18.4% shift that effectively broke the contest open. Riley finished as the game's top offensive performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-18.8% and an RE24 of plus-1.7. The Braves had already established early leverage in the bottom of the second, when Adam Duvall doubled off Hicks for a plus-8.8% swing, finishing the night at plus-9.1% WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. San Francisco mounted its only real threat in the top of the sixth, when Matt Chapman doubled off Chris Sale for a plus-8.6% swing followed by a Jorge Soler double for an additional plus-6.3%, producing the Giants' lone run. Chapman led all Giants batters with plus-11.4% WPA and plus-1.3 RE24. A Zack Short fielder's choice out in the bottom of the sixth erased a potential Atlanta threat and cost the Braves 9.5% in win probability, though the damage was already done.
On the mound, Chris Sale paced all pitchers with a plus-13.8% WPA contribution despite surrendering the Chapman and Soler doubles in the sixth, while Joe Jiménez and A.J. Minter added plus-8.1% and plus-7.2% respectively in relief to close out Atlanta's clean, errorless performance.