MLB Recap · July 3, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

MIL3
Final
COL0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL110010000390
COL000000000080

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers shut out the Colorado Rockies 3-0 at Coors Field on July 3, 2024, scoring all three of their runs in the first, second, and fifth innings while holding Colorado scoreless throughout. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Colorado entering with a 29% chance of winning at home, a figure that eroded steadily and finished at 0% by the final out.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the third, where Christian Yelich's double off Dakota Hudson shifted win probability by plus 6.5 percentage points, part of a night in which Yelich led all batters with a plus 11.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0. Colorado failed to capitalize on its own chances, with Michael Toglia grounding into a double play off Colin Rea in the second inning at a cost of 6.0 percentage points, and Nolan Jones striking out against Rea in the seventh for a further swing of minus 7.0 percentage points. Garrett Mitchell's walk off Hudson in the fifth, which added 8.5 percentage points, helped Milwaukee extend its cushion to the final margin. Jake Cave and William Contreras also contributed positively, adding 4.2 and 4.1 percentage points of win probability respectively.

On the mound, Colin Rea was the night's dominant force, generating a plus 31.1% WPA to lead all pitchers, with Peter Lambert contributing an additional plus 10.1% and Jakob Junis adding plus 2.0%. Colorado managed eight hits against the Brewers staff but could not convert any of them into runs, finishing with an error-free but scoreless performance. Milwaukee's pitching rotation combined to strand Colorado's offense entirely, completing one of the more efficient road shutouts of the season at one of baseball's most offense-friendly venues.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalCOL win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 28.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Top 5th · off Dakota Hudson
+8.5%
Nolan Jones Strikeout
Bot 7th · off Colin Rea
-7.0%
Christian Yelich Double
Top 3rd · off Dakota Hudson
+6.5%
Willy Adames Strikeout
Top 3rd · off Dakota Hudson
-6.2%
Michael Toglia Grounded Into DP
Bot 2nd · off Colin Rea
-6.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Christian Yelich+11.1%+2.0 RE24
Jake Cave+4.2%+0.4 RE24
William Contreras+4.1%+0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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