Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | 5 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 on July 2, 2024, at Target Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 65 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent as Minnesota pulled away in the middle innings.
The game's decisive sequence unfolded in the third and fifth innings. Royce Lewis delivered the evening's second-most impactful blow in the bottom of the third, a double off Tarik Skubal that shifted win probability by 18.9 percent and gave Minnesota early life. The fifth inning was where the contest effectively turned. Detroit briefly seized momentum when Ryan Kreidler hit a home run off Simeon Woods Richardson, a swing that represented the single largest win-probability shift of the night at plus 21.6 percent, followed shortly by a Justyn-Henry Malloy home run off the same pitcher for an additional plus 11.1 percent, giving the Tigers a 3-2 lead. Minnesota answered immediately in the bottom half, as Manuel Margot went deep off Skubal to push the Twins back in front, a blow worth plus 13.6 percent in win probability. Carlos Correa added an insurance home run off Beau Brieske in the eighth, a plus 12.0 percent swing that closed the door on any Detroit rally.
Among individual performers, Kreidler led all batters with a plus 18.1 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, though his heroics proved insufficient. Lewis paced Minnesota's offense with plus 14.8 percent WPA and a team-best plus 1.7 RE24, while Margot contributed plus 12.1 percent WPA. On the pitching side, the Twins bullpen was central to preserving the result, with Jorge Alcala leading Minnesota's relievers at plus 11.7 percent WPA, followed by Griffin Jax at plus 10.8 percent and Jhoan Duran at plus 6.3 percent.