Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Yankees a 5-4 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 2, 2024, a result that defied the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 68 percent home win probability. Cincinnati scored all five of its runs in just two innings, breaking a scoreless tie with a single run in the fourth before erupting for four more in the fifth. New York mounted a comeback with three runs in the sixth and one in the seventh but never fully closed the gap, and the model's estimate reached 0 percent as the final out was recorded.

The decisive swing came in the top of the fifth, when Will Benson connected on a home run off Luis Gil, a hit that shifted win probability 16.6 percent in Cincinnati's favor. New York answered in the sixth on a Ben Rice double off Nick Martinez, a play worth 12.3 percent in win probability for the Yankees, and Aaron Judge kept the comeback alive in the seventh with a home run off Sam Moll worth 15.2 percent. However, DJ LeMahieu's flyout in the bottom of the eighth off Fernando Cruz cost New York 12.9 percent, and Anthony Volpe's pop out to end the ninth, against Alexis Díaz, was the single largest win-probability swing of the game at 31.6 percent, effectively closing the door on any remaining hope.

Fernando Cruz led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.3 percent, with Graham Ashcraft adding plus-16.2 percent and Luke Weaver contributing plus-11.0 percent in support of Cincinnati's bullpen effort. Among position players, Elly De La Cruz posted the best combination of win probability added and run-environment impact at plus-16.8 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Aaron Judge's plus-16.3 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 represented the most impactful individual performance for New York in a loss. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Cincinnati's pitching depth as the primary driver of the upset result.