Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-4 at Wrigley Field on July 2, 2024, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had anticipated from the outset, with the pre-game home win probability sitting at just 34% and closing at 0%. Philadelphia built its lead through two decisive stretches, plating two runs in the second, one in the third, and two more in the fifth before adding a seventh-inning insurance run, while Chicago could manage only a run in the third and a three-run ninth that proved too little, too late.

Trea Turner was the game's defining force, accounting for a combined +24.3% in win probability and +3.2 RE24. He homered twice off Hayden Wesneski, first in the third inning for a +8.5% swing and again in the fifth for a +13.3% swing, the latter representing the single largest batting contribution of the night. Cody Bellinger kept Chicago's hopes briefly alive in the third with a double off Michael Mercado that carried a +10.1% win-probability impact, the most consequential Cubs plate appearance of the evening. Seiya Suzuki added a ninth-inning home run off José Ruiz worth +7.4%, part of a late push that brought the final margin to two runs.

On the pitching side, Michael Mercado led Philadelphia's staff with a +7.8% contribution despite surrendering Bellinger's double, and Gregory Soto followed with +4.1%. Dansby Swanson's lineout in the bottom of the ninth off Jeff Hoffman registered a +14.4% swing, the single largest play of the game by that measure, as it ended the Cubs' final threat and preserved the Philadelphia win. The DiamondIQ model favors Turner as the clear standout on the night given his combined offensive impact across both his home runs.