Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles shut out the Seattle Mariners 2-0 at T-Mobile Park on July 2, 2024, holding Seattle to just two hits across nine innings and never allowing the home side to seriously threaten. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Seattle entering the night with a 44% chance of winning, but that figure steadily eroded and finished at 0% as Baltimore's pitching staff dominated from start to finish.

The decisive sequence came in the fourth inning, where the game's two most impactful plays unfolded in quick succession. Anthony Santander's single off George Kirby in the top of the fourth shifted win probability 8.6 points in Baltimore's favor, providing the foundation for what became the game's first run. Seattle's response in the bottom half was immediately extinguished when Jorge Polanco grounded into a double play against Grayson Rodriguez, a swing of negative 11.1 points in win probability that effectively erased any Seattle momentum before it could develop. Cal Raleigh's strikeout against Rodriguez in the sixth, a further 7.9-point swing against the Mariners, reinforced how thoroughly Rodriguez was controlling the strike zone. Baltimore added an insurance run in the seventh, and even when Craig Kimbrel hit Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley in the ninth — each carrying a 7.8-point swing toward Seattle — the Mariners could not convert.

Grayson Rodriguez was the clear standout performer, posting a staggering plus-27.2% WPA figure that reflected his dominance across his time on the mound. Cionel Pérez and Yennier Cano contributed plus-13.3% and plus-9.5% respectively, accounting for Baltimore's bullpen lockdown. Offensively, Josh Rojas led all batters with plus-7.0% WPA alongside a plus-0.5 RE24, while Ty France and Anthony Santander each added plus-5.5% and plus-4.5% WPA at identical plus-0.5 RE24 marks.