St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a 7-4 defeat at PNC Park on July 2, 2024, building a commanding four-run lead through the first four innings before surviving a Pittsburgh rally in the fifth to close out the road win. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with the Pirates at a 49 percent pre-game win probability, but that number eroded steadily and finished at zero as St. Louis controlled the majority of the contest.

The decisive sequence came in the third and fourth innings against Pirates starter Mitch Keller. Alec Burleson delivered the game's single highest-impact play with a home run in the top of the third, a swing that shifted win probability 16.5 percent in St. Louis's favor. Nolan Gorman followed with another home run off Keller in the fourth, adding another 13.6 percent swing and stretching the Cardinals' advantage to four runs. Pittsburgh responded in the bottom of the fifth when Jack Suwinski and Andrew McCutchen both went deep off Kyle Gibson, worth 13.7 and 9.8 percent win-probability swings respectively, briefly tightening the game. However, a Yasmani Grandal groundout into a double play in the bottom of the third had already cost Pittsburgh 8.6 percent in win probability, and the Pirates never fully capitalized on their momentum in the fifth.

On the individual ledger, Suwinski led all players with a +21.9 percent WPA and a +3.2 RE24 despite being on the losing side, reflecting how dangerous his contributions were in the context of the game. Burleson finished at +13.1 percent WPA and Gorman at +13.0 percent WPA, making the Cardinals' middle-of-the-order production the clearest driver of the outcome. Out of the bullpen, Ryan Fernandez was the Cardinals' top pitching contributor at +11.0 percent WPA, followed by JoJo Romero at +5.2 percent and Josh Fleming at +4.4 percent, as St. Louis's relief corps secured the final frames without allowing Pittsburgh another run after the fifth.