MLB Recap · July 2, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

MIL4
Final
COL3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL0100001024121
COL020000010370

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Colorado Rockies 4-3 at Coors Field on July 2, 2024, in a game that remained tightly contested before unraveling for Colorado in the final innings. The Brewers entered as heavy underdogs by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which placed the Rockies' pre-game win probability at 71%, yet Milwaukee steadily eroded that advantage and closed it to zero by the final out. Colorado scored twice in the second inning to take an early lead, but the Brewers answered with a run of their own that frame and added another in the seventh to knot the game before the decisive ninth-inning sequence.

The single most impactful moment of the game came in the top of the ninth, when Rhys Hoskins was hit by a pitch from Justin Lawrence, a play that swung win probability 36.7 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor. That sequence continued as Christian Yelich singled off Nick Mears for a 15.3-point swing and Brice Turang drew a walk from Mears adding another 15.2 points, with the Brewers ultimately pushing two runs across to take a 4-2 lead. Colorado mounted a response in the bottom of the ninth, with Brenton Doyle's double off Bryan Hudson having already added 16.6 points to the Rockies' cause in the eighth, but Elias Díaz's strikeout against Trevor Megill in the ninth swung 27.0 points back toward Milwaukee and sealed the outcome.

By the WPA ledger, Hoskins finished as the game's top batting contributor at plus-33.3%, while Díaz posted plus-32.0% despite his strikeout being scored from Colorado's perspective as a loss. Doyle's 20.7% mark reflected his consistent presence in the heart of the Rockies' late push. On the pitching side, Ryan Feltner led all pitchers with a plus-25.1% WPA in a strong outing for Colorado, and Milwaukee's Jalen Beeks contributed plus-10.6% out of the bullpen. The DiamondIQ model leans toward the Brewers' late-inning execution as the defining factor in their ability to flip what appeared to be a difficult road game into a 4-3 victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalCOL win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 29.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Rhys Hoskins Hit By Pitch
Top 9th · off Justin Lawrence
+36.7%
Elias Díaz Strikeout
Bot 9th · off Trevor Megill
+27.0%
Brenton Doyle Double
Bot 8th · off Bryan Hudson
+16.6%
Christian Yelich Single
Top 9th · off Nick Mears
+15.3%
Brice Turang Walk
Top 9th · off Nick Mears
+15.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Rhys Hoskins+33.3%+1.2 RE24
Elias Díaz+32.0%-0.1 RE24
Brenton Doyle+20.7%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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