New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 2 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 9-7 on July 1, 2024, at Nationals Park in a game that extended to ten innings before New York pulled away. The Mets and Nationals played to a scoreless tie through five innings before Washington drew first blood with two runs in the third on a Harold Ramírez single off David Peterson, a hit that shifted win probability 13.3 points in the Nationals' favor. New York answered with a three-run sixth inning, with Francisco Alvarez delivering the key blow, a double off Derek Law that swung win probability 27.4 points toward the Mets. The Nationals stayed within reach, adding a run in the eighth on a Joey Meneses single off Dedniel Núñez, a play worth 20.8 percentage points for Washington, and a James Wood reaching on an error off Jake Diekman in the ninth moved the needle another 17.5 points toward the home side. With the game still hanging in the balance heading to extras, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had the contest at a near coin flip entering the tenth.
J.D. Martinez settled matters decisively. His home run off Hunter Harvey in the top of the tenth inning swung win probability 51.9 percentage points in New York's favor, the single largest shift of the game, and gave the Mets the cushion they needed to close out a 9-7 victory. Martinez finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 48.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.5, while Francisco Alvarez was close behind at plus 25.2 percent WPA and plus 2.6 RE24, the highest run-environment figure among position players. Joey Meneses led Washington's contributors at plus 23.9 percent WPA. On the pitching side, MacKenzie Gore led all pitchers with a plus 23.7 percent WPA, with Kyle Finnegan adding plus 13.5 percent and Dylan Floro contributing plus 10.6 percent for Washington. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with a 50 percent home win probability and closed it at zero, a reflection of how completely the Mets' tenth-inning surge resolved what had been a genuinely balanced contest.