Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
| COL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies walked off the Milwaukee Brewers 8-7 in ten innings on July 1, 2024, at Coors Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had initially given just a 30 percent chance of occurring before the first pitch. Colorado trailed for much of the contest but finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Milwaukee stranded opportunities in a game that saw significant momentum swings across the final three innings.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the eighth, where Brenton Doyle delivered the game's single most impactful swing, a home run off Elvis Peguero that shifted win probability by plus 24.5 percent in Colorado's favor. That same half-inning also featured Michael Toglia grounding into a double play off Peguero, a play that swung win probability 19.0 percent against the Rockies, demonstrating how volatile the eighth inning was for both sides. Milwaukee pushed back in the top of the tenth when Sal Frelick drew a walk off Tyler Kinley that added 24.7 percent win probability for the Brewers, briefly making it a genuine tossup. But Rhys Hoskins followed with a fielder's choice out that cost Milwaukee 18.7 percent win probability, and the Brewers could not extend the threat. In the bottom of the tenth, Michael Toglia's flyout off Joel Payamps, classified as a positive 19.5 percent swing from Colorado's perspective under the walk-off leverage context, ended the game in the Rockies' favor.
Brenton Doyle led all players by both WPA and RE24, finishing plus 38.1 percent and plus 3.0 respectively, anchoring Colorado's offensive effort. Sal Frelick paced Milwaukee with a plus 32.2 percent WPA despite the loss, while Brendan Rodgers contributed plus 26.8 percent for Colorado. On the mound, Victor Vodnik was Colorado's most effective reliever at plus 13.5 percent WPA, whereas Tyler Kinley finished at minus 4.0 percent despite ultimately recording the win, a reflection of the precarious situations he navigated in the tenth.