Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies held off the Miami Marlins 7-6 on June 30, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that was closer than the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of an 80 percent home win probability suggested it might be at times. Philadelphia built leads and surrendered them across a back-and-forth afternoon, with Miami generating significant damage in the fourth inning when Jazz Chisholm Jr. laced a single off Ranger Suarez that added 9.9 percent to the Marlins' win probability as part of a two-run frame. The Marlins finished with 12 hits and kept pressing, though two errors of their own complicated their efforts on the other side of the ball.

The decisive stretch came in the sixth and seventh innings, when Philadelphia's offense erased whatever threat Miami had built. Nick Castellanos delivered a single off A.J. Puk in the bottom of the sixth worth 22.3 percent in win probability, and Trea Turner followed with an even larger swing in the bottom of the seventh, his single off Anthony Bender adding 27.1 percent to Philadelphia's chances and standing as the single biggest play of the game by that measure. Bryson Stott's flyout against Andrew Nardi in that same seventh inning briefly dimmed the rally at minus 12.8 percent, but the damage had already been done.

Castellanos led all position players with a combined 23.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Turner contributed 21.2 percent WPA and 1.3 RE24. Jake Burger added 17.8 percent WPA on the Miami side. On the mound, Yonny Chirinos paced Philadelphia's pitching staff at 15.3 percent WPA, edging Jeff Hoffman at 15.2 percent and Gregory Soto at 10.8 percent. The DiamondIQ model closed the game at 100 percent confidence in the Phillies, who took the final 7-6 despite committing four errors across the contest.