Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers ended June with a dominant 7-1 home victory over the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field on June 30, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model entered as a 67 percent home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle innings. The Cubs managed just two hits and never threatened after a first-inning run, while Milwaukee's offense erupted in the fourth to put the game firmly out of reach.

The fourth inning was the decisive sequence, and Kyle Hendricks bore the full weight of it. Brice Turang's home run off Hendricks in the bottom of the fourth was the single largest swing of the game, adding 19.6 percent win probability in Milwaukee's favor, and Christian Yelich followed almost immediately with another home run off the same pitcher, adding another 18.7 percent. Sal Frelick then drove in a single that contributed an additional 9.6 percent swing, completing a catastrophic frame for Hendricks that essentially closed out the competitive portion of the contest.

Turang finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a WPA of plus 17.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 3.0, while Yelich added plus 11.9 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 in a supporting offensive role. On the mound, Freddy Peralta led Milwaukee's pitching staff with a plus 3.7 percent WPA contribution, keeping the Cubs' lineup quiet after Hendricks's rough outing had already decided the outcome.