Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-1 at T-Mobile Park on June 29, 2024, handing Seattle a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability that eventually fell to zero. Minnesota scored in four of nine innings, with the bulk of the damage coming in the second, fourth, and sixth frames, while Pablo López kept Seattle largely in check across a strong outing on the mound.
Byron Buxton was the defining force of the contest, accounting for a combined +37.1 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of +3.1. His double off Bryce Miller in the fourth inning shifted the win probability by 11.0 percent in Minnesota's favor, and his sixth-inning home run off Trent Thornton — a three-run blast that turned a narrow lead into a commanding 5-1 advantage — swung the model's estimate by an additional 27.4 percent, effectively closing the door on any Seattle comeback. Carlos Santana contributed as well, adding a double in the fourth off Miller that moved the needle another 6.9 percent and finished with a WPA of +8.8. Seattle's lone bright moment came in the third inning, when Mitch Haniger connected on a home run off López for an 11.0 percent swing in the Mariners' favor, but it proved to be an isolated highlight in an otherwise frustrating night for the home side.
Pablo López was excellent in his start, finishing with a WPA of +20.8 as he limited Seattle to that single run. A fourth-inning groundout double play by Ty France off López carried a negative 6.0 percent swing for the Mariners, reflecting just how thoroughly Minnesota's starter suppressed Seattle's offensive opportunities. Jorge Alcala and Steven Okert each contributed out of the bullpen with positive WPA figures of +3.6 and +1.2 respectively, helping preserve the four-run cushion through the final innings.