Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 9-4 defeat at Busch Stadium on June 29, 2024, overcoming a pre-game environment in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side a 58 percent chance of winning. The Reds chipped away in the third inning before breaking the game open in the fifth, ultimately pushing the model's final win probability for St. Louis all the way to zero.
The decisive sequence came in the fifth inning, where Cincinnati sent the Cardinals reeling with a six-run outburst. Elly De La Cruz delivered a triple against Sonny Gray that shifted win probability by 8.1 percentage points, and Noelvi Marte followed with a fielder's choice that added another 8.8 points to Cincinnati's ledger, also against Gray. The knockout blow came when Stuart Fairchild singled off John King to swing the win probability a further 14.3 percentage points in the Reds' favor, effectively closing the door on any St. Louis comeback. The Cardinals had briefly kept themselves in it with a Michael Siani single off Carson Spiers in the third inning that added 8.1 points in their direction, but the rally went no further.
De La Cruz was the clear standout performer of the afternoon, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-17.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.2, anchored by both the fifth-inning triple and a double in the third that had already swung probability 9.8 points toward Cincinnati. Fairchild contributed a WPA of plus-10.2 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.3, making him the most run-context-efficient bat in the game. On the mound, Carson Spiers led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-10.8 percent, absorbing the Cardinals' best offensive moments and limiting the damage across his outing. Cincinnati finished with 13 hits against St. Louis's 8, and the model's lean throughout the second half of the contest reflected what the scoreboard confirmed.