Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves walked off the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 in ten innings on June 29, 2024, at Truist Park, with Adam Duvall delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the tenth. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 63 percent probability of an Atlanta win, and by the time Duvall singled off Kyle Nicolas to end it, that figure had reached 100 percent. The walk-off single was the most impactful play of the night by a significant margin, shifting win probability by +35.9 percent in Atlanta's favor and capping a game that had been knotted at one since Pittsburgh scratched across its lone run in the fifth inning.
The path to that tenth-inning moment was shaped heavily by Paul Skenes, whose outing was the most valuable pitching performance of the game. Skenes contributed +25.9 percent in win probability for Pittsburgh, and his third-inning work included inducing a Marcell Ozuna double-play groundout that shifted the game's win probability by 12.9 percent against Atlanta. Pittsburgh, however, left moments on the table in the extra frame, with Ke'Bryan Hayes striking out against Daysbel Hernandez for a 12.4 percent negative swing, while Nick Gonzales grounded out in a play that paradoxically registered a +16.4 percent shift given the automatic-runner context. Raisel Iglesias also factored prominently for Atlanta, logging a +13.5 percent contribution after retiring Edward Olivares on a groundout in the top of the ninth, a sequence that cost Pittsburgh 13.5 percent in win probability and kept the game tied heading to extras.
On the offensive side, Duvall finished as the top batter by WPA at +27.8 percent with a RE24 of +0.7, while Sean Murphy contributed +11.0 percent in win probability despite a slightly negative RE24 of -0.2, reflecting the leverage of his plate appearances within Atlanta's half-innings. Max Fried also added +13.2 percent from the mound for the Braves. Pittsburgh finished with seven hits and no errors, matching Atlanta's line identically in both categories, but the Pirates were unable to convert in the moments that mattered most against a Braves club that needed just one swing in ten innings to secure the victory.