Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins handed the Philadelphia Phillies a 3-2 defeat at Citizens Bank Park on June 29, 2024, completing an improbable comeback against a team the DiamondIQ model had installed as a 79% favorite before first pitch. Philadelphia struck first when Garrett Stubbs connected for a home run off Roddery Muñoz in the third inning, and the Phillies added a second run in the fifth to carry a 2-1 edge into the late innings. Miami had scratched across a run in the second, but the game appeared to be tilting firmly toward the home side heading into the seventh.
The decisive turn came in the top of the seventh against the Philadelphia bullpen. Nick Fortes roped a double off Aaron Nola, a swing that shifted win probability 12.1 points in Miami's favor, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. followed with a single off Matt Strahm worth another 18.7 points, giving the Marlins a 3-2 lead they would not relinquish. Calvin Faucher then became the game's most valuable arm, generating 23.3 WPA points out of the bullpen, most notably recording a strikeout of Nick Castellanos in the eighth that swung the window 12.9 points away from Philadelphia. Roddery Muñoz contributed 12.5 WPA points despite surrendering the Stubbs homer, and A.J. Puk added 9.7 WPA points as Miami's relief corps held firm.
The strangest individual line of the night belonged to catcher Rafael Marchán, whose lineout to end the ninth inning was logged as the single largest probability swing of the game at plus-31.6 WPA points for Miami. The play effectively closed the door on Philadelphia's final threat against Tanner Scott, leaving Marchán as the game's top batter by win probability despite posting a minus-0.1 RE24. Nick Fortes finished second among batters at plus-16.9 WPA with a plus-0.3 RE24, while Phillies infielder Bryson Stott led Philadelphia's contributors with plus-14.6 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 in a losing effort. Miami's eight hits against five for Philadelphia told the story of a road team that consistently found the gaps when the game was on the line.