Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3 on June 29, 2024, at American Family Field, overcoming a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate had Milwaukee entering with a 66 percent pre-game win probability. The Cubs scored twice in the first inning, allowed the Brewers to tie it with two runs in the third, and then traded runs in the fourth before the game remained deadlocked heading into the eighth. That's where Chicago seized control for good.

The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth inning when Ian Happ launched a home run off Joel Payamps, a swing that shifted win probability by 26.9 percentage points and effectively broke Milwaukee's back. Happ finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-36.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the clear catalyst for the Cubs' victory. On the other side of the ledger, Milwaukee's best scoring opportunity evaporated in the bottom of the first when Christian Yelich grounded into a double play off Justin Steele, a sequence that swung win probability 10.0 points against the Brewers and stalled what could have been an early advantage.

On the mound, Justin Steele led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.7 percent, benefiting in part from Rhys Hoskins' strikeout in the second inning, which cost Milwaukee another 9.8 points of win probability. Porter Hodge and Bryan Hudson also contributed meaningfully out of the bullpen, adding plus-13.3 and plus-8.3 percent respectively. Héctor Neris closed it out in the ninth, getting Tyler Black to strike out in a spot that removed Milwaukee's final 9.5 percentage points of comeback hope, completing Chicago's road win against a Brewers club that never quite recovered from its early defensive miscues.