New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees routed the Toronto Blue Jays 16-5 at Rogers Centre on June 28, 2024, in a game that was effectively decided by a six-run sixth inning that overwhelmed a Toronto pitching staff unable to contain New York's lineup. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the home Blue Jays a 37 percent chance of winning, but that figure collapsed to zero percent by the final out, as the Yankees finished with 18 hits and committed no errors against Toronto's one.

The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth inning, when Juan Soto deposited a home run off Yusei Kikuchi that shifted win probability by 31.5 percent in New York's favor, the single most impactful play of the game. Toronto then turned to Nate Pearson, who fared no better: J.D. Davis followed with a double worth 13.6 percent in win probability, and Gleyber Torres added a home run off Pearson that moved the needle another 10.8 percent. The inning produced six runs and rendered the outcome all but certain. The Yankees added two more in the eighth and a stunning seven in the ninth to reach the final margin.

Soto finished as the game's most dominant individual performer, accumulating a game-high plus-34.5 percent WPA and a plus-3.2 RE24, reflecting both the situational weight and the run-value of his contributions. Davis supported him with plus-17.8 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa contributed plus-14.4 percent WPA. On the mound, New York's bullpen handled the final innings cleanly, with Génesis Cabrera leading Yankees pitchers at plus-2.1 percent WPA. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit a solo home run off Luke Weaver in the seventh worth 10.9 percent for Toronto, offering the Blue Jays a brief moment in an otherwise difficult evening.