Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners walked off the Minnesota Twins 3-2 in ten innings on June 28, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assigned just a 45 percent pre-game probability to the home side before swinging to 100 percent certainty by the final out.

The game's decisive turning point arrived in the bottom of the eighth inning, when a fielding error off Griffin Jax handed Julio Rodríguez a plate appearance that shifted win probability by plus 27.8 percent in Seattle's favor, the single largest swing of the night. Minnesota had briefly seized control in the top of the sixth, when Carlos Correa launched a home run off Logan Gilbert to move the needle plus 21.8 percent toward the Twins, giving them a two-run advantage that stood until the Mariners answered with a run in the bottom half of the fifth and continued to chip away. Seattle's path narrowed dangerously in the ninth when Josh Rojas struck out against Jhoan Duran, a minus 20.5 percent swing that kept Minnesota alive heading into extras. In the tenth, Rodríguez grounded out to move the automatic runner into scoring position for a plus 19.5 percent gain, and Cal Raleigh followed with a fielder's choice that delivered the winning run at plus 16.4 percent.

Rodríguez was the game's standout performer at plus 40.4 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, his contributions spanning both the error sequence and the walkoff rally. Correa matched him at plus 1.4 RE24 despite a plus 16.6 percent WPA finish as his sixth-inning home run ultimately proved insufficient. On the mound, Bailey Ober led all pitchers at plus 18.7 percent WPA, with Andrés Muñoz adding plus 13.5 percent and Jorge Alcala contributing plus 9.7 percent to Seattle's bullpen effort.