MLB Recap · June 28, 2024

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

DET2
Final
LAA5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
DET002000000220
LAA20000003-5100

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-2 on June 28, 2024, at Angel Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Los Angeles scored first, plating two runs in the bottom of the first inning, before Detroit answered with two of its own in the top of the third. That third-inning rally carried the largest single-swing in Detroit's favor, as walks drawn by Mark Canha and Matt Vierling off Zach Plesac added 10.1 and 9.7 percentage points to the Tigers' win probability respectively. The momentum did not hold, however, as a Colt Keith groundout off José Marte swung the needle back 8.0 points toward Los Angeles, and a Nolan Schanuel strikeout double play off Kenta Maeda in the bottom half cost the Angels 7.9 points, keeping the game tight through seven.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth, when Logan O'Hoppe hit a home run off Shelby Miller that shifted win probability by 39.6 percentage points in a single swing, effectively ending Detroit's chances. That blast capped a three-run eighth inning that pushed Los Angeles's lead to 5-2, a margin the Tigers could not recover. O'Hoppe finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-44.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.8. Matt Vierling and Jo Adell contributed modest positive WPA figures of plus-5.3 and plus-5.1 respectively, while Detroit managed just two hits across nine innings.

On the pitching side, the Angels' relief corps largely controlled the outcome after the third inning. Hunter Strickland led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-15.4 percent, followed by José Marte at plus-13.7 and Will Vest at plus-11.1. Those three combined to shut down Detroit's offense over the middle and late innings, preserving a victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had anticipated as a coin-flip entering the game but classified as a near-certainty by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025DET bats firstFinalLAA win %DET win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Logan O'Hoppe Home Run
Bot 8th · off Shelby Miller
+39.6%
Mark Canha Walk
Top 3rd · off Zach Plesac
+10.1%
Matt Vierling Walk
Top 3rd · off Zach Plesac
+9.7%
Colt Keith Groundout
Top 3rd · off José Marte
-8.0%
Nolan Schanuel Strikeout Double Play
Bot 3rd · off Kenta Maeda
-7.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Logan O'Hoppe+44.4%+2.8 RE24
Matt Vierling+5.3%+0.7 RE24
Jo Adell+5.1%-0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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